Are the days of organic SEO numbered? That’s the idea raised by a search scientist’s assessment of Google’s AI-powered disruptions.
At the 20th annual MozCon conference, Tom Cappersenior search scientist at Moz, provided a data-driven reality check.
Capper warned attendees
“At the end of this talk, I will tell you that full-funnel organic marketing is impossible in 2024 for most businesses.”
He examined how Google’s overall AI results, aggressive monetization, and the evolution of search intent pose challenges for businesses relying on SEO.
Additionally, in an exclusive interview with Search Engine Journal, Capper highlighted possible paths forward for those looking to pivot.
Photo taken by the author at MozCon, June 2024.
The zero click threat
Capper chronicled the rise of search “intents” as informative, navigation, commerciali transactional inquiries
Google’s new AI overview feature, which generates answers directly at the top of the page, has proven particularly disruptive for information searches.
“Organic is a really tough game for informational intent,” Capper said, showing data that informational searches have the lowest share of voice for traditional organic results due to AI overviews and other SERP features.
Photo taken by the author at MozCon, June 2024.
He also pointed out 21% informational searches now show a featured snippet result, which can satisfy users without clicking.
“You basically can’t play at the top of the funnel,” he said bluntly.
AI Overviews A “bug”
In the exclusive interview, Capper warned that Google’s rush to implement AI overview could negatively affect the company’s brand image:
“I think Google went too early and rushed, and yes, I think it’s a mistake. That’s a bit dangerous for SEO, because if Google suffers, it’s disruptive for our industry as well.”
The commercial battleground
While the data is dire for news content, Capper says business searches represent a “sweet spot.”
However, these valuable mid-funnel queries have become a “turbulent” and “incredibly contested” battleground.
Noting the Google Product Reviews update and other recent changes, Capper said:
“Commercial is where a lot of that is [Google’s search quality issues] plays … it’s become an incredibly volatile section.”
Major sites like Amazon, Reddit, and YouTube dominate trade results along with an overabundance of price listings and review rich results. This raises the bar for smaller sites trying to rank.
“There’s arts, hobbies, real estate, much more realistic to try to compete here,” Capper advised.
He warned editors to only rely on easy-answer questions,
“If that’s what you’ve been doing, you’ve probably been suffering for a long time. . . . If you’re not ready to switch to any other kind of content, then sure, go ahead. Find a different channel.”
The future of payment and local?
In the bottom funnel, Capper described transactional you search for “pay to play unless you’re a brick-and-mortar business”.
The monetization of Google’s product listings and its experimental map embeds for transactional queries continue to reduce organic visibility.
However, Capper highlighted local SEO as a promising path, stating:
“If you can do well in local search, I think even in the worst-case scenario of the AI Overview launch, you’d still do well here.”
Adaptation to the changing landscape
Despite the challenges posed by AI-powered search features, Capper believes there are still opportunities for organic marketing success.
It offers the following recommendations:
It targets news queries that don’t have a featured snippet, allowing for better organic visibility. Focus on less competitive business inquiries in verticals such as arts, hobbies and real estate. Take advantage of local search optimization for transactional inquiries, even for businesses without a physical presence. Use keyword modifiers like “best,” “compare,” “superior,” and “reviews” to identify queries with commercial intent.
Photo taken by the author at MozCon, June 2024.
Looking to the future
When asked about his advice for SEO professionals who may be discouraged by the AI search revolution, Capper suggests adapting and focusing on creating high-quality, authoritative content.
Capper stated in the exclusive interview:
“If you feel like writing something more interesting, I think you can still play an organic.”
Ultimately, Capper remains optimistic about the future of organic search.
In the interview, he notes that Google’s business model depends on sending organic traffic to other sites:
“I don’t think Google will ever get to the point where Google doesn’t send traffic because ultimately that’s their business model.
People expect that when they search on Google they will end up going to other websites; if people don’t have that expectation, they won’t click on ads; If people don’t click on ads, Google doesn’t make money.”
To sum up
While informational and transactional searches have become difficult to rank organically, Capper’s research suggests there are opportunities in retail and local spaces.
To adapt, he recommends focusing on less competitive business topics, leveraging local SEO for transactional inquiries, and creating content beyond simply answering basic questions.
Featured Image: KieferPix/Shutterstock
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