Google began adding AI Overviews (AIO) to US search results on May 14. While vaguely mentioning that links to AIOs get higher click-through rates (CTRs), Google has been evasive when asked directly about this.
When we discuss this important topic with my clients, we talk about two things:
AI overviews offer a fundamentally different user experience, so thinking about CTR in the traditional way can be misleading or cause you to miss out on potential opportunities. Google may be telling the truth, but miscommunicating this interesting fact, or they may be being vague on this topic on purpose.
Also, while I’m mainly focusing on AI overviews here, much of the same thinking and concerns apply to Bing Copilot.
Overview of AI UI and UX
Google AI Overviews and Bing Copilot offer a new way to interact with search results. This new user experience begins when the user interacts with the generative AI (eg generating an AIO response, expanding on a previously generated one, submitting a request).
Google and Bing’s generative AI user interfaces take over the search results, presenting a much richer response to the user’s query compared to traditional search engine results pages.
Search engines are more satisfied when AIOs are displayed, according to Liz Reid, Google’s vice president and head of search. AIO typically provides a summary of the main query topics with brief explanations for each subtopic, including links to non-Google websites.
Regarding the CTR, if the AIO summary is divided into several sections, each section usually contains one or more links. In addition, Bing Copilot works as a single-page application, providing a more interactive and iterative search experience compared to traditional Bing results.
Thinking about CTR requires evolving, with more nuance, because traditional search results pages differ from generative AI user interfaces.
That’s why the evasion of Google and Bing on this issue is frustrating.
When considering this, I focus on two possible extreme scenarios for the searcher:
The summary fully satisfies the searcher’s needs, ending the search session without clicking on any links. The searcher is more informed and asks follow-up questions to explore further, so they are likely to click on the URLs presented for each query and follow up with the search engine or AI interface.
Generative AI UI is likely to lead to higher CTR
One key observation: The generative AI UI is very dominant with fewer clickable targets compared to other search features.
In particular, AIO links are more prominent and richer than regular search results, with site names, headings, snippets, and possibly images all packed into a card-like format that begs to be clicked.
So when searchers want to click on a link, the mere fact that there are fewer click targets highlighted in AIO (compared to the 10 blue links) can only lead to a higher CTR.
Mathematically, the denominator is the number of click targets, and the smaller the denominator, the higher the CTR.
The key question to consider: How often do searchers want to click on a link? Only Google can answer this definitively because this data is not public. Later in this article we will discuss how to get an intermediate measure of this.
What Google said about clicks on AI overviews
The most direct statement is from Reid’s announcement:
“And we see that links included in AI Overviews get more clicks than if the page had appeared as a traditional web listing for that query.”
Annoying, right? This sentence is vague, lacks context and appears to be an attempt by the corporate communications team to obfuscate the bad news.
Let’s examine some possible interpretations:
CTR measured by the search function
Google calculates CTR as clicks per search function. For example, AIO, sitelinks, knowledge panels, and featured snippets each have their own CTR.
The UX argument is that a more dominant interface gets more clicks. Since AIO is very dominant (Copilot takes over the entire screen), you will have a higher CTR for your links.
CTR measured as clicks to a link within the search function
Within any search function, different links get different CTRs. For example, of the 10 blue links, position 1 has a higher CTR than position 9.
IA Overviews usually show between two and five links, much less than the 10 blue links that are usually displayed.
Since AIO offers fewer links, the CTR for each AIO link is higher compared to the links in the 10 blue links.
CTR measured as clicks to a given link
We can compare the same link in AIO with other search functions. Due to AIO’s prominent display, attractive context and fewer links, the CTR of a link on AIO is likely to be higher than on other search features.
Several factors make understanding AIO performance difficult:
Duplicate URLs: In traditional search, a URL appears only once in the top 10 results. However, during the AIO testing phase, a URL might appear multiple times in the generative AI response. This may not be the case in the live version, but it’s worth noting.
CTR measurement: AIO and Copilot are interactive, so CTR varies greatly depending on whether it’s measured per search session or per query. Session measurement is likely to show a higher CTR.
Variable answers: AIO responses to the same query can vary significantly over time. Unlike standard search engine results pages (SERPs), AIO response content, including links displayed and content format (sections, image carousels, etc.), can vary every time.
CTR of all SERPs
One thing Google and industry commentators haven’t discussed is the overall CTR from the search results page to the wider web.
The presence of any search feature can affect the CTR of links within that feature and other search features.
With this in mind, SERP featured AIOs and Copilots are likely to reduce clicks to other features, especially the 10 blue links.
This means that the CTR for links in AIO may be higher, but overall the SERP may generate fewer clicks.
The result could be more search sessions with zero clicks.
If true, this has huge implications for organic search traffic to all websites.
Search engines need to increase
So what interpretation of CTR is Google referring to?
I think it’s the third one – a link is more likely to have a higher CTR if it’s displayed on AIO compared to one of the 10 blue links.
The problem is that we don’t know how Google and Bing measure the CTR of these new UIs and are avoiding the question.
We need more transparency from search engines.
Instead of avoiding these questions, search engines should clearly explain how they measure CTR and other metrics for the new UX.
Measure the impact of AI overviews on your website traffic
While we wait for Google to share better data, what can we do to measure the impact of AI overviews?
To measure impact, I’ve been using three sources of data with my clients to paint a rough picture:
A SERP tracking tool: I use Authoritas to help track how AIO appears in the SERPs over time. The same query can get very different AIO responses. Therefore, any monitoring tool must report these variations. Be careful when checking SERPs manually.
Web Analytics: Use Google Analytics (or whatever you use) to report on pages referred from Google that contain #:~:text=. This format highlights specific parts of the page in the SERPs for featured snippets and AIO links. You should already be tracking this!
Search Console data. Use the Bulk export from Search Console to BigQuery for richer data on page query combinations. Analyzing this data for AI overviews and highlights is crucial and should already be part of your routine.
Reports from these three data sources in a business-friendly format will help you estimate how often:
AIO appears for a query. Your website is displayed on AIO. Your site gets clicks from AIO.
Although imperfect, it provides directionally correct vision.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the guest author and not necessarily Search Engine Land. Staff authors are listed here.
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