The March 2024 Google Core Update will undoubtedly be one of the most talked about SEO topics of the year, if not the last few years.
There’s a lot going on around the update, from its length to the death of the Useful Content Update (HCU) to all the SERP quality issues (talking about you, Reddit).
There will be a lot of talk about this update. Here are some things I wanted to share based on the data that Semrush shared with me, going through hundreds of SERPs and looking at the ranking patterns along with the sites themselves.
To be clear: none of this is final. The following analysis is what I saw and my interpretations.
1. Analyzing this update is difficult
Analyzing the Google March 2024 Core Update is difficult for many reasons. Even just understanding what happened in terms of the HCU and the integration (or lack thereof) into the kernel is a whole basket of confusion for several reasons.
The other elephant in the room is how long it took for the update to roll out, which presents a bunch of complications compared to traditional data.
The full range volatility fluctuation pattern seen during the March 2024 core update (with only a little pre-update volatility to boot)
For example, one of the “metrics” tool providers show is the “peak volatility” level.
As I’ve mentioned on several occasions (including SMX Next 2023), this metric is often the least indicative when measuring the impact of an algorithm update, but it can still help paint the big picture.
I’d say that, in this case, it’s almost entirely irrelevant.
If you look below, the peak volatility levels observed during the March 2024 core update are actually lower than what Semrush tracked during the November 2023 core update.
surprising? Not really.
The March 2024 Core Update was a very different update. This wasn’t a quick week or a burst of intense algorithmic activity: it was an extended series of many moments of algorithmic intensity.
Looking at a “peak” moment in time (in our case, one every 45 days) is not how this update should be analyzed.
The same applies to another metric that is often quite revealing: change in volatility. This data examines the levels of ranking fluctuations during a baseline period (a period of relative calm) and compares them to the level of fluctuation observed during the update.
Looking below, it turns out that the March 2024 Core Update and the November 2023 Core Update show exactly the same amount of relative change for Semrush:
Here, too, the metric is based on comparing one moment in time with another moment. With the March 2024 core update, it’s not specific algorithmic moments that can be analyzed, but the whole shebang.
It all makes measuring the impact of Google’s March 2024 Core Update much more difficult than usual (and it’s usually very difficult).
2. Huge movement in the lower half of the SERP on the web
I must have looked at around 300 SERPs and the ranking patterns of the top 20 results throughout the entire update.
One of my first observations was that there was a lot of movement towards the bottom of the “SERP page 1”, but the top results didn’t seem to see any increase in volatility relative to other updates I’ve analyzed
That’s not to say that sites weren’t affected by key ranking losses at the top of the SERP. I’m saying that I generally expected to see more movement at the top of the SERP.
(If you’re screaming, “No, I’ve seen crazy ranking exchanges at the top of the SERP, you’re cheating!”, make no mistake, I’ll be there.)
This assessment seems to be corroborated by the data provided to me by Semrush.
If you look at the percentage of URLs ranking in the top 10 after the update that didn’t crack the top 20 before the update, you’ll see a disparity between the March 2024 core update and the update November 2023 basic:
In November, 6.46% of URLs ranking in the top 10 came from position 20. This figure increases significantly to 9.38% in March.
To me, this is more telling than peak volatility or volatility change. It’s the analysis of where things were and where they ended up throughout the update. It’s not just about looking at a single moment in time.
It also helps to see how drastic the ranking volatility was and whether Google was actually rewarding what it didn’t know how to reward before.
That said, the same pattern is not true when looking at the top 5 results:
Among the top 5 results, the gap between the March 2024 core update and the November 2023 core update is much less significant.
This would indicate that the March 2024 core update is not disproportionately powerful relative to other core updates where it matters most: the top of the SERP. (Again, when we look at it through that very specific lens).
It also points out what I saw and mentioned earlier: the upgrade was hard towards positions 6-10.
Be careful: this is horizontal data analysis that was intended to try to sweep the web; it is very standardized. We still have to dig a bit more “vertically” and that’s part of what makes analyzing this update so difficult.
Get the daily search newsletter marketers trust.
3. Aggregate data only tells part of the story
With this particular update, I don’t think you can sweep the web and look at top-notch data. It is, in a strange way, too normalized.
Looking at the web horizontally includes sites that lost and gained rankings, but mostly it includes sites that didn’t do much.
To better understand the update, you need to look at who was affected and the nature of that impact. It is a more vertical and qualitative analysis.
From what I see (again, it’s just what I see, and this is anecdotal), the March 2024 Core Update had a bite to it that you don’t always see with a Core Update.
Below is a site that slowly started to see growth in September 2023 (ironically around the September 2023 useful content update) and really took off in Q4 2023 (I suspect but I haven’t dug enough to say with confidence).
The March 2024 core update destroyed it.
Since I mentioned the September 2023 HCU, below is a site that saw a rank reward with the August 2023 core update, but a loss with the September 2023 HCU a month later .
The March 2024 core update almost finished it.
There seems to be a bit of a pattern with sites being hit by the September 2023 HCU and seeing subsequent losses with the March 2024 core update:
My personal theory is that no, Google didn’t dump the HCU. It doesn’t make sense to me that they invested so much into creating the build only to throw it in the trash.
What I personally think happened is that the classifier used by the HCU was based on and serves as the basis for the multi-faceted way that Google algorithmically evaluates usefulness.
Think of it like the Model T. No, the Model T is no longer produced, but the process used to mass produce it serves as the basis and foundation for mass producing the cars we drive today.
For the record, not all sites were affected; some were rewarded. Here’s the informative content folder for a site that’s getting a massive boost with the March 2024 Core Update:
So how “big” was the March 2024 Core Update?
Trying to size any algorithm update is such a precarious task. Even more so with the March 2024 core update.
I hate to use the millennial SEO cliché, but it depends. It depends on how you look at it.
Define the impact of the March 2024 Core Update by its reach across the web? If so, there are hints that it was more powerful than your typical update, but not definitively.
However, if you define the impact of the March 2024 Core Update by its ability and tendency to be harsh, then the March 2024 Core Update, by all accounts, seems to have had a bit more.
My personal opinion: There was something different about this update. When you put it all together, the extra bite that the update had in the places it negatively affected, the extra rank volatility seen in the 6th – 10th rank positions, etc., paint a picture of what is a very “unique” update “.
The views expressed in this article are those of the guest author and not necessarily Search Engine Land. Staff authors are listed here.
[ad_2]
Source link
