Will search engine traffic to your website drop by 25% by 2026 as a result of the rise of generative AI answer engines? That’s what Gartner, a technology research and consulting firm, predicts.
Why we care SEO and PPC are incredibly valuable. Search traffic is what can generate revenue and profit (whether by converting that traffic into leads, sales, or any type of conversion that’s important to your brand).
The rise of generative AI has raised legitimate concerns that Google’s generative search experience (and other AI-based answer engines) could “steal” traffic that would have gone to your website in the past, or significantly increase the costs for advertisers. Many also believe that ChatGPT is already stealing market share from Google.
the prediction Gartner believes that people will turn to generational AI conversational assistants (eg ChatGPT, Claude) instead of traditional search engines (eg Google). If true, this would mean a huge shift in search marketing strategies, both paid and organic. Gartner predicts:
“By 2026, traditional search engine volume will drop by 25%, and search marketing will lose market share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents.”
But. A prediction (this was shared in a Press release today based on thorough research that requires a subscription) is just a guess. Gartner’s predictions are usually informed, but are still best guesses.
Respected analyst firms rarely get called out when they’re wrong, because people rarely double-check. As a recent example, Gartner made a startling prediction 50% of consumers would limit participation or leave social networks in the year 2025, but later pushed it back a bit.
Prediction 2028. Gartner previously predicted that “organic search traffic will decline by 50% or more as consumers embrace AI-based generative search.” This was based in part on the results of a survey (of 299 consumers in August 2023) which found:
79% of respondents expected to use AI-enhanced search in the next year. 70% of consumers had at least some confidence in AI generative search results.
For this prediction, Gartner advised brands to prepare for disruption due to AI-driven search:
“Marketing leaders whose brands rely on SEO should consider allocating resources to try other channels to diversify,” said Emily Weiss, senior principal researcher at Gartner.
It is not guaranteed. Gartner may be right; we’ll know for sure in 2026. But I recommend you read Gartner’s predictions the same way you should read a ranking factor correlation study published by an SEO tool/platform. It is entertaining, perhaps informative or even directionally useful, but not irrefutable.
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